Central African Republic's incumbent president, a Russian ally, eyes a third term in key elections

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BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — Voters in the Central African Republic are electing a new president and federal lawmakers Sunday, with incumbent President Faustin Archange Touadéra seen as likely to win a third term after trying to stabilize the country with the help of Russian mercenaries.

Touadéra is one of Russia’s closest allies in Africa and analysts say a third term win for him would likely consolidate Russia’s security and economic interests in the country even as Moscow faces growing scrutiny over its mercenaries’ roles in Africa.

The Central African Republic was among the first in Africa to welcome Russia-backed forces, with Moscow seeking to help protect authorities and fight armed groups. Tensions, though, have grown this year over Moscow’s demand to replace the private Wagner mercenary group with the Russian military unit Africa Corps.

Some 2.4 million voters are registered to vote in Sunday’s national elections, which is unprecedented in scope as it combines the presidential, legislative, regional and municipal ballots.

There were initial delays with voting starting an hour late in some polling stations mostly in outlying districts of the capital, Bangui. Some voters also said they couldn't find their names on the electoral rolls, or where they are to vote.

“When we arrived, no one was ready. With these delays, we risk voting until 8 p.m.,” said Barthélemy Wadenguende, a voter in Bangui.

Provisional results are expected in a week’s time. A runoff will be held if no presidential candidate gets more than 50% of the votes cast.

Touadéra faces challenges from six candidates, including prominent opposition figures Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra, both former prime ministers. The election is being held without the main opposition coalition, the Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution, which said in October that it will boycott the election after denouncing what it called an unequal political environment. Neither Dologuélé nor Dondra are part of it.

Analysts say Touadéra is a clear favorite after consolidating his control of state institutions in recent years, and due to the absence of strong opposition.

Backed by Russia, he has hinged his campaign on efforts to achieve peace, stability and economic recovery in the country of about 5.5 million people, long battered by conflict.

The landlocked country has been plagued by fighting between pro-government forces and armed groups, particularly since 2013 when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced then President François Bozizé from office. A 2019 peace deal only partially lessened the fighting, and some of the 14 armed groups that signed it later withdrew from the agreement and continued their fighting.

“Our country has suffered greatly from brutal regime changes, a cycle that repeats itself every ten years. I call on the people of the Central African Republic to choose the stability of institutions and a prosperous Central African Republic,” Touadéra told The Associated Press in a recent interview.

Touadéra's closest challenger is believed to be Dologuélé, a candidate in the 2016 and 2020 elections who has promised in his campaigns to “restore a damaged Central African Republic.” His priorities include sustained peace and economic recovery based on agriculture and other key sectors.

“President Touadéra destroyed everything. Our programme is a solid summary to get the country out of poverty. What country is this that produces nothing and exports almost nothing, except beer? We must revive the economy,” he said in a recent interview.

Analysts say the most important factor for voters is the country’s security situation.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA, present in the country since 2014, has been crucial with election logistics in the past. It currently has around 14,000 military personnel and 3,000 police members who will help guard election sites.

The vast but sparsely populated nation is crisscrossed by dense forests, rivers and bad roads, and the electoral body faced challenges getting election materials to some hard-to-reach communities.

In November, the U.N. Security Council extended the mission by a year but said its presence would scale down due to budget constraints.

“Because of the peace deals, United Nations peacekeeping efforts and security support from Wagner and from the Rwandans, the country is in a more secure place than it was during the last electoral cycle in 2020,” said Lewis Mudge, the Central Africa director at Human Rights Watch.