Thailand's political path is shadowed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's dramas

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BANGKOK (AP) — Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former prime minister of Thailand, remains one of the country’s most influential and controversial figures nearly two decades after being ousted in a 2006 military coup. His political journey, marked by unprecedented popularity, a dramatic fall from power, years in self-imposed exile and a high-profile return, continues to shape Thailand’s political landscape.

Thaksin's dramatic path took another turn Tuesday when the Supreme Court ruled that he must serve a one-year prison term for previous convictions on graft and abuse of power charges, after investigating whether officials had mishandled his return to Thailand in 2023 to begin serving the sentences.

Last month, he defied expectations when a court that has historically leaned against him and his political machine acquitted him of royal defamation, an offense that could have sent him to prison for up to 15 years.

Despite powerful enemies in the Thai establishment and criminal convictions for corruption, he had avoided prison by going into exile after his ouster. His return had seemed to signal an accommodation with his opponents.

He was insistent on maintaining a high public profile and was seen as the real power directing the government that was formed as he returned, especially when his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became prime minister last year. It appeared to keep his old enmities alive and embroiled him in legal challenges from those wishing to curb his influence.

The Shinawatra family is prominent in the northern city of Chiang Mai, where Thaksin was born to a mercantile family in 1949. After a career in public service as a police colonel, Thaksin became a business entrepreneur in the late 1970s. He built a telecommunications empire starting with Advanced Info Systems, an early mobile phone service provider and the primary source of his fortune.

He entered politics in 1994, holding Cabinet posts before establishing the Thai Rak Thai Party in 1998. Using his fortune to build a nationwide political machine, he promoted populist policies that resonated with lower-income citizens, especially in the countryside.

His platform promised to spread economic growth and bridge the wealth gap, with signature policies including universal healthcare and village development funds. This led to landslide victories for his party in 2001 and 2005, making him the first elected Thai prime minister to complete a four-year term and the country’s longest-serving democratically elected leader.

However, Thaksin’s massive popularity and electoral support rocked Thailand’s established political order. This earned him powerful enemies among conservative forces, including the army and the courts, which saw him as a threat to the monarchy, the bedrock of Thai identity, as well as to their own influence.

He also faced criticism for his imperious CEO-style governance, intolerance of criticism, especially from the media, and failure to distance his business interests from government policy. His administration was also blamed for setting off a persistent Muslim insurgency in Thailand's southern provinces and for what human rights advocates said were more than 2,000 extrajudicial killings during his war on drugs.

His second term was cut short by a military coup in 2006 while he was abroad. Opponents accused him of corruption, abuse of power, and disrespecting then-King Bhumibol Adulyadej, and hounded him with legal cases that he characterized as politically motivated.

Thaksin’s ouster triggered nearly two decades of deep political polarization, pitting his supporters against opponents, including better-off urban dwellers, ardent royalists and the military. He briefly returned in 2008 to face charges but skipped bail and fled abroad again, commencing a self-imposed exile lasting over a decade.

Despite his physical absence, Thaksin remained a beloved and influential figure among his followers, whom he encouraged remotely. Parties formed from the ashes of his Thai Rak Thai Party and, still under his influence, consistently won elections but just as consistently were driven from office by legal challenges in courts hostile to him and destabilizing street protests.

His supporters, the “Red Shirts,” engaged in militant street actions, countering “Yellow Shirt” royalists, with both sides responsible for street violence.

His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, continued the family’s legacy, leading the Pheu Thai Party to victory in 2011 and becoming Thailand’s first female prime minister. Her government’s proposed amnesty for Thaksin triggered protests, leading to another military coup in 2014 — and driving Yingluck into exile as well.

While in exile, Thaksin, who had his Thai passport revoked, obtained another from Montenegro through investment and spent significant time in Dubai. He also purchased and sold the Manchester City Football Club and invested in mining in Africa.

Thaksin’s return became possible after the progressive Move Forward Party’s victory in 2023 rattled the establishment that had so abhorred him. This led to what many called a “self-serving deal” between Thaksin and his former conservative foes, a move that alienated many supporters even as it returned Pheu Thai to power while keeping Move Forward out of government.

His dramatic return to Bangkok in August 2023 occurred on the same day Pheu Thai formed a new coalition government, after royalist Senators refused to endorse Move Forward's mandate from the voters.

Upon his return, Thaksin was sentenced to an eight-year prison term for corruption but was immediately transferred to a fancy hospital suite due to ill health, a diagnosis regarded with skepticism by many. His sentence was reduced to a single year by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, and he was released on parole in February 2024 after six months.

Critics questioned his illness, viewing his abbreviated stay as a “special privilege.” Tuesday's Supreme Court ruling said his transfer to the hospital did not follow proper procedures and that his health condition could not justify his extended stay there.

Since his release from hospital, Thaksin has maintained a high public profile, traveling around the country and offering political observations. He is widely considered the de facto leader of Pheu Thai and the power behind its government.

However, his daughter Paetongtarn was ousted as prime minister last month after a court found her guilty of an ethics violation for a politically compromising phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.

Pheu Thai exited its two years in power after Parliament last week confirmed a candidate from a rival party as the new prime minister. Many see this as a major blow to the political influence Thaksin has wielded for more than two decades.